The End of the U.S.

I do not believe the scenario projected but there is no question that the US has become extremely vulnerable and the trend is downwards. The US is economically Bankrupt and has been  for some time but has survived because of it’s size. The US is too big to be allowed to fail as it will disrupt the entire global system and take down many other countries with it as we are beginning to witness.
 
There have been other factors why it’s creditors have not come calling. It’s creativity and innovation, It’s supposedly well regulated market, the insatiable demands of its consumers, a Democratic process for change of leadership and its powerful army. Recently many of these qualities have come into question.
 
The Army has built up a record of taking on much weaker opponents and being unable to beat them. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan are examples. By it’s own admission the regulatory system is in shambles. It has been possible for corporations and Individuals to commit huge frauds under the noses of the regulators. Enron, Fannie, Freddy and Madoff are some examples. The Democratic process is riddled with voting fraud, corruption of the elected Representatives, successful penetration of the process by lobby groups representing business interests and Israel respectively. Decisions are constantly taken which are in the interests of these groups and not in the interests of the country. Blind support of Israel, massive pork in legislation, and increasingly high number of government officials being caught in sex scandals ( Governor of NY, Governor of NJ, prominent candidate for President, a sitting President)  or outright abuse of power ( Governor of Alaska, Governor of Illinois, George Bush, Dick Cheney). 
 
Consumerism is not necessarily a strength where it is encouraging people to live beyond their means, pile up debts and get addicted to waste and self indulgence. That leaves us with creativity and innovation. The whole world is waiting with baited breath to see how these qualities will help the US to get out of the hole that they have dug themselves into but for the first time questions are being raised that maybe their days are over as a Super Power. That they are no longer in touch with a newer, more global world, that it is no longer possible to bring about a change that will make them more in tune with the 21st Century.
 
The ultimate sign of decadence is a people happy to rest of their laurels, seeking inspiration from the past rather than the future, believing in their own goodness and virtue in spite of evidence to the contrary. ( This sounds eerily like the Muslims, who at one time ruled the world and have to this day not been able to get out of the rut).
 
No matter what the US does, for the rest of the world the first lesson is to reduce their reliance on the US. The decoupling process which had already begun will accelerate. Regional Markets will emerge, more intent on trading with one another than with the US. As the dollar weakens, countries will look for alternate reserve currencies or baskets of them. Creditors will want to hedge their bets in not wanting to increase their trade surpluses with the US.
 
This is the scenario of an orderly transition, which gives some respite to the US to prove their skills in restoring confidence in their market and their skills. I do not believe that this will happen. A disorderly transition which I believe to be the more likely scenario will accelerate both the decoupling and the decline of the US. There is every indication there will be no change under the Obama administration of the disastrous Foreign policy followed by the Bush Administration.  In addition to a hostile South America and a a hostile Russia, the biggest challenge is from an increasingly hostile Muslim world. There is growing awareness that the problem for the US is no longer Afghanistan but of stopping Pakistan from disintegrating. If Pakistan falls, then Egypt will follow and eventually Saudi Arabia. Oil prices will go through the roof as supplies get disrupted and the US military will be stretched to a breaking point suffering more and more casualties. That is where the US public will revolt and  prospects of a civil commotion become very possible.
 
Igorin’s scenario is more plausible then we might think. Khusro
 
Dream comes true
NEW YEAR GIFT

DECEMBER 29, 2008

As if Things Weren’t Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

In Moscow, Igor Panarin’s Forecasts Are All the Rage; America ‘Disintegrates’ in 2010

MOSCOW — For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument — that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. — very seriously. Now he’s found an eager audience: Russian state media.

[Prof. Panarin]

Igor Panarin

In recent weeks, he’s been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. “It’s a record,” says Prof. Panarin. “But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger.”
Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.
But it’s his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin’s views also fit neatly with the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.
A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.
“There’s a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur,” he says. “One could rejoice in that process,” he adds, poker-faced. “But if we’re talking reasonably, it’s not the best scenario — for Russia.” Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.
Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces — with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin’s ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country’s top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin’s English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.
Mr. Panarin’s apocalyptic vision “reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today,” says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. “It’s much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union.”
Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin’s predictions. “Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people,” says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin’s theories don’t hold water.
Mr. Panarin’s résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB’s successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.
The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are “classified. “
In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.
“When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise,” he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. “They didn’t believe me.”
At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls “The Californian Republic,” and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of “The Texas Republic,” a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an “Atlantic America” that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls “The Central North American Republic.” Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
“It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time.” A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. “It’s not there for no reason,” he says with a sly grin.
Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia’s biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt “a pyramid scheme,” and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington’s role as a global financial regulator.
Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama “can work miracles,” he wrote. “But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles.”
The article prompted a question about the White House’s reaction to Prof. Panarin’s forecast at a December news conference. “I’ll have to decline to comment,” spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.
For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino’s response was significant. “The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully,” he says.
The professor says he’s convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union — 15 years beforehand. “When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him,” says Prof. Panarin.

[Igor Panarin]

Write to Andrew Osborn at [email protected] wsj.com

Posted in Economic and Human Rights